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“Toronto is full.” “Toronto is dense enough.” There’s “no more space.” These are all assertions I frequently hear, especially as part of my job as an architect and urban planner. Some even suggest directing growth to smaller cities that “still have room.”
The problem with this view is that it is wrong from the start. Not only does Toronto have plenty of room, it has that room in areas with existing access to transit.
The thing Toronto is lacking is the will to admit that this room exists and use it to get us out of the housing disaster we are experiencing.
To find out how much room we have, we studied how many more homes we would be able to add near good existing transit if we put aside restrictive planning policies.
Official Plan restricts intensification
The city’s Official Plan directs almost all intensification into a tiny fraction of the city – areas the Official Plan designates as Mixed Use and Apartment Neighbourhoods. These account for only 8.5 per cent of the city’s land.
The city forbids intensification in areas designated “Neighbourhoods” – an elitist code name for single-family homes, which has nothing to do with actual neighbourhoods (the yellow on its land use map). And yet, most of the area in the city that has good transit access is within areas under this untouchable designation.
Growth and development in Toronto have been planned in much the same way for decades.
We asked ourselves: "What if we considered the city’s land-use capacity near transit, regardless of arbitrary colours on a map, instead?"
Imagine using all the space we have with easy access to transit to create high-quality communities with a mix of appropriate housing sizes, types and tenures for people at all stages of their lives. What would it be like to live in Toronto?
Wouldn’t it be an even greater city, more equitable, livable and welcoming for all?
How much new capacity is there?
We looked at just how much capacity there is for new residents near transit, without giving up on the quality of life we seek and expect, with larger average-sized homes and a higher open space ratio per home.
Our "Welcoming More Homes and Residents" map shows we’re nowhere near capacity. Ready?
We found that Toronto has the hypothetical capacity to add 273 square kilometres of the city, enough space for 7.6 million new homes and 12 million residents. (Of course, we will never build that much, but it clarifies the validity of the claim that the city is "full")
By focusing growth on areas with access to transit, we can better utilize lands with immense potential, but that are currently underdeveloped and can accommodate future demand.
We started by focusing on land near transit, creating an inner circle and outer ring – those within 400 and 800 metres of rapid transit (GO, LRT, subway) and 250 and 400 metres of frequent transit (streetcars and frequent buses).
We included all land that’s near transit, including designated Neighbourhoods and employment lands, and excluded buildings that are unlikely to be redeveloped (by current FSI – a measure of built floor area/site area). Once we finalized the methodology, we reached out to the urban data app Ratio.City, a division of Esri Canada, to use their data to identify areas that meet these criteria.
We conservatively assumed that 30 per cent of that land would not be developable for reasons like heritage designation or steep slopes.
New residents are coming, so we must build
So we created a new map with four key colours: inner circle, outer ring, open space, and everything else. The inner circle marks areas closest to transit stations, where development should be more concentrated. The outer ring covers areas a bit farther out, still suitable for significant development.
Our map reveals where the hidden capacity is – the many lands across the city with reasonable access to transit.
As Toronto residents, we all feel the pressure of "big city". However, shutting the doors to growth won't solve our housing supply and affordability issues, nor will it address the decades of planning and investment decisions that have brought us here.
People will continue to come and if we don't build, it will lead to massive displacement and a city only the rich can afford.
To those who say we're "maxed out," we say we have the space – it's time to make the most of it.
(Below are two illustrations showing various density levels of development which could be achieved around just two Toronto transit hubs, generated by the Smart Density and Ratio.city findings. Density (red is higher density, yellow is medium) is reduced as one moves further away from the hub. Purple represents existing buildings.)
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